Why Barack Obama Will Win The 2008 Presidential Election

Electoral College Math
As we were reminded in 2000, states elect the President of the Unites States; citizens do not. According to Real Clear Politics, John McCain’s lead over Mr. Obama in the popular vote has vacillated between 1-2% for a little more than a week now. However, state by state, it is Mr. Obama that has a very narrow 273-265 lead in the electoral vote. This 273-265 was even cited by none other than Karl Rove on the Sunday talk circuit.

The following are the true “toss-up” states (by my definition, those where 3% or less separates the popular vote)- Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Mr. Obama is currently ahead in Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania and tied in Virginia. Mr. McCain does not have a lead in any state that went for John Kerry in 2004. Conversely, Mr. Obama is presently ahead or tied in 4 states that went for George W. Bush in 2004, representing 33 electoral votes.

Stupid McCain-isms
“The fundamentals of the economy are still strong.” So says the guy married to the gal with either 7 or 9 houses and the multi-million dollar inheritance. After saying something foolish like this today on a day where the stock market drops 500 points, one major US financial institution goes bankrupt and another is bought for pennies on the dollar, what would be foolish is to not believe a few more votes moved from Mr. McCain to Mr. Obama.

It’s The Economy, Stupid!
The sluggish economy has overtaken Iraq as the #1 concern of American voters and, by a 52-40% margin, most Americans believe Mr. Obama is better equipped to handle the economy. Much of his economic appeal comes from making such populist friendly claims as that he intends to cut taxes on 95% of American households. Objectively, one should evaluate Mr. Obama’s 94 votes in the United States Senate related to cutting taxes and the fact that, on balance, the bottom 50% of American households already pay little to no taxes. While Mr. Obama really has not been challenged on this issue, a simple majority of households are on board with his economic plan.

9% of voters remain undecided. These are Independent voters who like both candidates and can still be persuaded to choose either. Mr. Obama’s call for Change resonates much more than questions about his experience. Mr. McCain has been successful in distancing himself from George W. Bush in the minds of Independent voters without alienating the Republican base. The upcoming debates will play a crucial role in deciding this election. The candidate who can best articulate a plan that appeals to the Independent minded voter for dealing with this country’s economic woes will win. Today, by a healthy margin, Americans believe that is Barack Obama.

Related Post: Why John McCain Will Win The 2008 Presidential Election