A Letter to a Friend

Dear Senator Obama,

As fabricationgate, troopergate, and the commencement of the Palin bubble burst are picking up speed; as the financial markets seem headed in a most abysmal direction, you, sir, are being presented with the gift of one hell of an opportunity to take back control of this race. Why, then, are you still faltering in not only the national polls, but now the electoral polls where you have maintained a lead since you were declared the democratic nominee?

We could certainly sit down over a cup of joe – excuse me, macchiato espresso - and ponder where the disconnect is, as I am sure we could put our fingers on a few powerful X-factors. Rather than go there, however, I would like to offer you a couple laymen-like observations as to what you might do to eek out a win in this election in the ensuing 49 days.

1) Sarah Palin
The queen of verisimilitude, herself. You have spent far too much time on her. Though I believe you have now received the memo, I will reiterate the point - leave her alone. This bubble is beginning to burst. In being very selective about her media exposure, the media has become quite motivated to sufficiently vet her, as no one believes John McCain did. You will have to trust that they will do so thoroughly. You are running for the president of the United States. You need only to focus on your sole opponent for that position, Senator John McCain.

You know, since Governor Palin was asked to join the republican ticket she has conveniently adopted a newfound praise for Senator Hillary Clinton and her historical run for the democratic nomination. Gov. Palin encourages Senator Clinton’s supporters to be angry by the perceived way Senator Clinton was treated during the primaries and for those disaffected Hillary supporters to join her in crashing through that glass ceiling in which Hillary placed 18 million cracks. You have numerous sound bites from Gov. Palin stating just that. Log a few of them on file. Then piece them together with a sound bite from earlier this year in which Gov. Palin accuses Senator Clinton of “whining” about sexism during the primaries. “When I hear a statement like that coming from a woman candidate with any kind of perceived whine about that excess criticism, or maybe a sharper microscope put on her, I think, 'Man, that doesn't do us any good, women in politics, or women in general, trying to progress in this country,' " Gov. Palin said during the primaries. Run that sound bite continuously up to the debates. Let your 527 groups* do this, among some other defense work for you. Senator McCain and Governor Palin offer much material that can be used to marginalize the effective, Karl Rove-style character war they have waged against you. Perhaps that might even free up Senator Biden’s inhibitions when he and madam Governor square off in the debates.

2) The debates
I sense that you are a bit arrogant in your belief that you and Senator Biden will dominate in the debates. I have more faith in Senator Biden than I do in you. I watched you grow as a debater during the primaries but I believe you face a more formidable opponent this time in John McCain. Why, you may ask? Senator McCain “connects” better than you do. He does this by staying on message. You have not connected in some time. So what do you do? You follow his lead in the way you approach your answers. We need less nuanced responses from you and quicker, more concise, substantive answers. It is a style more characteristic of a Commander-in-Chief. Nuances unnerve the general public. In fact, you should be moving from a nuanced approach to a more concise, sharp, substantive message on the stump, in general.

3) Bill Clinton on the stump
That’s it. I don’t really need to say much here. I know you two had a meeting last week. Whatever it is he is asking for I certainly hope you are giving serious consideration to letting him have it. He could really help you sway the swing states in your favor.

4) It really is the economy, stupid
This week brings us the failure of Lehman brothers, the buyout of Merrill Lynch, the government bailout of AIG, and a single-day Dow Jones fall of 500+ points. You can legitimately attribute this to the “laissez faire” Republican deregulation policies which are predicated on the belief that the economy works best if private industry is not regulated and markets are free; small government, indeed - which has given way to greed, gross mismanagement, and corruption. John McCain supports these policies and that is a matter of record. And this presents your greatest opportunity to strike.

Now is the time to really sharpen your economic acumen and reconnect with voters, particularly the independents who are still nonplussed by your economic plan. What voters want now is someone to give them confidence in their financial futures. They want Hope. They want to know that you know how we get back on track and compete with the rest of the world. They want access to affordable healthcare. The Democratic Party stands on the favored side of public opinion on these issues so seize the moment.

5) Dance with who brought you
What not all these polls reflect is the impact of your grassroots organization – the foot soldiers. They are not capturing the newly registered voters you are bringing to the political process. This is a good sign for you but still represents an unknown. Most of these voters belong to groups that traditionally are apathetic come election day. If I were you, I would pour some money and effort in securing and re-energizing this base.

I take you back to when you first embarked on this journey… There was a movement brought about by the thought of true change in America. Everyone knew what you meant by “change” without you having to supply the “specifics” which your critics used in an attempt to shame you from your platform. These people understood what you meant even when “change” meant different things to different people. You had - and still have - the most diverse coalition of supporters who were hungry for what an Obama presidency could bring - hope. You were connecting then. You aren’t now. They need to know they still have your ear and vice versa. You need to reignite this movement.

Remember, the African American community did not show up to the polls in the numbers they should have in the Pennsylvania primaries. This is the apathy from minorities that represents the unknown in the efforts of your grassroots organization.
Make sure you stay present in the Latino communities. This is a vote that is admirably considered up for grabs and should not be assumed a guarantee in your favor.

Your many young supporters traditionally tend to jump from trend to trend. Remind them that you are not a trend. What you represent is a real chance for them to truly own a piece of the government they believe has failed their futures due to the irresponsible voting of their parents and grandparents. Do not be afraid to give a few more stirring “Yes We Can” speeches to remind them of the movement that was.

In other words, reconnect and shore up your base, Senator. Shore up your base.

Good luck,
A Friend

*A 527 group is a type of American tax-exempt organization named after a section of the United States tax code, 26 U.S.C. § 527. A 527 group is created primarily to influence the nomination, election, appointment or defeat of candidates for public office. Although candidate committees and political action committees are also created under Section 527, the term is generally used to refer to political organizations that are not regulated by the Federal Election Commission or by a state elections commission, and are not subject to the same contribution limits as PACs.